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Invoice Connelly, ESPN Employees Author
Each event takes by itself persona. Generally we get a load of early-round upsets, which might usually result in later-round blowouts of Cinderellas. Generally we get early chalk, which is not notably entertaining however produces some titanic later-round contests.
The 2024 FCS playoffs elected to go together with the latter. The primary two rounds weren’t with out their leisure: Lehigh upset Richmond within the first spherical; Illinois State received a wild turnover pageant over Southeast Missouri State; and 10 of 16 video games featured a crew scoring at the least 34 factors (factors are enjoyable).
However the high eight seeds all superior to the quarterfinals with minimal drama. And that offers us 4 notably intriguing matchups to look ahead to this weekend.
• No. 8 Idaho at No. 1 Montana State (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• No. 6 Incarnate Phrase at No. 3 South Dakota State (Saturday, midday, ESPN)
• No. 5 UC Davis at No. 4 South Dakota (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+)
• No. 7 Mercer at No. 2 North Dakota State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
Omitting video games towards FBS groups and one another, Montana State, South Dakota State, North Dakota State and South Dakota are a mixed 41-0 towards the remainder of the FCS and 3-0 towards the opposite 4 quarterfinalists. MSU and SDSU, in truth, already walloped their quarterfinal opponents — SDSU beat UIW 45-24 in Week 2, and MSU beat Idaho 38-7 in mid-October.
In different phrases, we may have one other spherical of chalk earlier than a very titanic set of semifinals. However every of the 4 underdogs is simply a break or two from making issues awkward. Let’s check out every matchup, in chronological order.
Playoff outcomes up to now: MSU def. UT Martin 49-17; Idaho def. Lehigh 34-13
Offensive SP+ rankings: MSU first, Idaho nineteenth
Defensive SP+ rankings: MSU second, Idaho nineteenth
School soccer usually makes you wait your flip. Kirby Sensible’s Georgia misplaced 4 straight to Nick Saban’s Alabama dynasty earlier than lastly breaking via in 2021. South Dakota State misplaced to North Dakota State 12 of 14 occasions between 2010 and 2019, together with 4 occasions within the playoffs, earlier than successful 5 in a row and taking the previous two nationwide titles. Ferris State misplaced within the Division II semis or finals 3 times in 4 years, then received two straight titles. Wisconsin-Whitewater took the Division III mantle from Mount Union, then relinquished it to Mary Hardin-Baylor, which yielded to North Central.
We do not know that South Dakota State is able to let go of its grip on FCS simply but. The Jackrabbits aren’t as dominant as final yr’s all-time squad, however they’re nonetheless fairly able to successful three extra video games and a 3rd straight title. That mentioned, Montana State has been the perfect crew within the nation up to now. The Bobcats are first in SP+, first in scoring offense, first in complete offense, second in speeding yards per recreation, second in cross effectivity, sixth in scoring protection and seventh in complete protection.
Quarterback Tommy Mellott has thrown for two,256 yards with a 26-1 TD-to-INT ratio and 659 speeding yards. Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have mixed for two,298 speeding yards and 24 TDs, and, within the ultracompetitive Huge Sky, eight Bobcats — Mellott, Humphrey, fullback Rohan Jones, offensive linemen Marcus Wehr and Conner Moore, defensive finish Brody Grebe, linebacker McCade O’Reilly, and DB Rylan Ortt — earned first-team all-conference honors.
The Bobcats have undoubtedly waited their flip. Since returning to the FCS playoffs in 2018, they’ve reached the semis or the finals 3 times, they usually’ve been eradicated by both NDSU or SDSU in each playoff journey. However the margins of defeat — 32, then 28, then 28, then 21, then one level final season — actually counsel a closing hole. However earlier than worrying about NDSU or SDSU, they must win two extra video games, together with a rematch with Idaho.
Behind Mellott’s 121 passing yards, 140 speeding yards and 4 mixed touchdowns, MSU rolled to a 24-0 halftime lead and cruised 38-7 within the first MSU-Idaho recreation this yr. Whole yards: MSU 485, Idaho 267. It was a mismatch, but when there’s hope for Jason Eck’s Vandals, it comes from two issues. First, they’re actually good, and it is onerous to beat a extremely good crew twice. Second, Idaho quarterback Jack Layne is again.
Layne threw and rushed for a landing towards Oregon within the season opener however missed two months to harm. In his previous three video games since returning, he is 52-for-72 passing for 830 yards, 9 touchdowns and only one interception. Receivers Jordan Dwyer and Mark Hamper have caught 38 balls for 674 yards and eight TDs in these three video games. The Idaho offense has shifted into gear, and the protection defends the run awfully nicely, at the least towards groups not named Montana State. That is under no circumstances a slam dunk for the Bobcats.
ESPN BET projection: MSU 33.5, Idaho 22.0 (MSU -11.5, over/beneath 55.5)
SP+ projection: MSU 38.3, Idaho 19.0
Playoff outcomes up to now: SDSU def. Montana 35-18; UIW def. Villanova 13-6
Offensive SP+ rankings: SDSU third, UIW 14th
Defensive SP+ rankings: SDSU first, UIW thirteenth
The second quarterfinal can also be a rematch. Zach Calzada’s 69-yard landing cross to Jalen Walthall tied UIW’s Week 2 recreation at SDSU at 17-17 early within the third quarter, and a 35-yard Calzada-to-Roy Alexander landing minimize SDSU’s result in 31-24 early within the fourth. The Jackrabbits put away a 45-24 win with a touchdown-turnover-touchdown knockout blow, however UIW outgained SDSU on a per-play foundation, 7.1 to 7.0. It was a battle.
Calzada, a former Texas A&M and Auburn quarterback, has thrown for 3,533 yards and 34 TDs, with each Walthall and Alexander topping 1,000 receiving yards. Calzada and Walthall are two of six first-team All-Southland offensive gamers for Incarnate Phrase. And whereas the protection did not fare extremely nicely in Brookings (or the subsequent week in a 35-28 loss to Southern Illinois), the Cardinals have held six of their previous eight opponents to twenty or fewer factors, with 4 gamers, led by linebacker Mister Williams, recording at the least 11 tackles for loss. The 2022 semifinalists have received 10 in a row.
SDSU, nevertheless, remains to be SDSU. The Jacks boast a pair of All-Missouri Valley linemen (Evan Beerntsen and Gus Miller) from a unit that averages 6-foot-4 and 304 kilos and clears the way in which for a trio of working backs led by Amar Johnson. In the meantime, quarterback and 2023 Walter Payton Award winner Mark Gronowski has not often been requested to hold a lot of a load this season (he has thrown greater than 25 passes simply as soon as in SDSU’s previous 5 video games) however has thrown for two,341 yards and 19 TDs.
The SDSU protection will doubtless decide whether or not this can be a recreation. The Jacks have allowed simply 12.9 factors per recreation, 9.0 since UIW left city. They’ve 5 first-team All-MVFC gamers, led by stalwart security Tucker Giant and tackling-machine linebacker Adam Bock. They have been untouchable of late, however UIW did tough them up a bit the final time these groups met. SDSU can win a monitor meet if vital, however that additionally could be the one means UIW can pull an upset.
ESPN BET projection: SDSU 36.5, UIW 18.0 (SDSU -18.5, over/beneath 54.5)
SP+ projection: SDSU 32.2, UIW 18.3
Playoff outcomes up to now: NDSU def. Abilene Christian 51-31; Mercer def. Rhode Island 17-10
Offensive SP+ rankings: NDSU second, Mercer sixteenth
Defensive SP+ rankings: Mercer seventh, NDSU tenth
Mercer received its first-ever playoff recreation final season earlier than falling within the second spherical to South Dakota State. Mike Jacobs’ Bears have one-upped themselves this season with their first journey to the quarterfinals, however now FCS’ different heavyweight awaits. NDSU is six factors from an unbeaten report in Tim Polasek’s first season in cost and has scored at the least 51 factors in three of its previous 5 video games.
Quarterback Cam Miller, the Missouri Valley’s offensive participant of the yr, has accomplished 74% of his passes, and No. 1 receiver Bryce Lance — brother of Trey — has a pair of 100-yard video games. As is all the time the case, the Bison will lean on the run so long as you allow them to, and with CharMar Brown and Barika Kpeenu working behind a line that averages 6-5, 304 kilos, they get to lean on the run so much.
This is not the perfect NDSU protection ever; the Bison have allowed at the least 24 factors on 5 events and at the least 21 in three straight video games. However the entrance seven nonetheless has disruptive anchors in finish Eli Mostaert and linebacker Logan Kopp, and that is necessary towards a Mercer offense that boasts a dynamite working again (Dwayne McGee, with 1,132 yards) however a freshman quarterback. Whitt Newbauer took over for injured DJ Smith late within the season, and though Smith performed a small position together with his legs towards Rhode Island final week, the sport plan featured heavy doses of McGee and backup CJ Miller (mixed: 31 carries, 195 yards). Newbauer went 10-for-20 for simply 57 yards and acquired sacked 4 occasions. If the Bears cannot run the ball nicely, they don’t seem to be going to attain a lot.
In fact, in addition they ensure that their opponents do not run the ball nicely. They’re permitting an FCS-low 66.9 speeding yards per recreation, 2.3 per carry (3.3 with out sacks). Younger ends Brayden Manley and Andrew Zock have mixed for 30 TFLs and 15 sacks.
When you like burly manball, this recreation is for you. NDSU’s run recreation towards Mercer’s run protection might be appointment viewing.
ESPN BET projection: NDSU 36.3, Mercer 17.3 (NDSU -19, over/beneath 53.5)
SP+ projection: NDSU 30.8, Mercer 19.1
Playoff outcomes up to now: USD def. Tarleton State 42-31; UCD def. Illinois State 42-10
Offensive SP+ rankings: USD fourth, UCD ninth
Defensive SP+ rankings: USD fifth, UCD fifteenth
UC Davis made waves this week in saying it was becoming a member of the Mountain West for all sports activities besides soccer. The soccer crew will stay an affiliate member of the Huge Sky, however make no mistake: These Aggies may have competed nicely within the MWC this yr.
Former Boise State offensive coordinator Tim Plough took over for retired Dan Hawkins at Davis and instantly introduced the Aggies again to the playoffs for the primary time in three years. Their 30-28 loss to Montana State on Nov. 16 was the Bobcats’ solely shut name all season towards an FCS crew, and, of their first playoff win since 2018 (and second ever) they blew No. 12 Illinois State’s doorways off, 42-10, final week.
All-purpose star Lan Larison had 191 yards from scrimmage towards the Cardinals, lifting his season totals to an unimaginable 1,425 speeding yards and 842 receiving yards. When you overcompensate in defending Larison, quarterback Miles Hastings (4,148 yards, 35 TDs) will merely torch you by throwing to one among 5 different targets with at the least 33 catches. The Aggies have sufficient weapons to beat even an excellent protection, however South Dakota’s is greater than good. The Coyotes have allowed simply 16.3 factors per recreation due to the terrifying mixture of MVFC defensive participant of the yr Mi’Quise Grace and Nick Gaes (mixed: 28 TFLs, 17.5 sacks) up entrance.
USD has allowed at the least 28 factors for 3 straight video games, nevertheless, which could imply the offense has to carry its personal in a monitor meet. That is doable. In an indication of coach Bob Nielson’s great total program constructing, the Yotes are additionally fourth in offensive SP+, able to beating groups with both the run — Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis have mixed for two,159 yards and 31 touchdowns working behind an unlimited line that averages 6-6 and 310 kilos — or the cross. Lefty quarterback Aidan Bouman has accomplished 69% of his passes at 13.7 yards per completion. UC Davis has a dynamite security in Kavir Bains (8.5 TFLs, 15 passes defended), however South Dakota has fairly a bit to supply right here.
ESPN BET projection: South Dakota 30.5, UC Davis 25.0 (USD -5.5, over/beneath 55.5)
SP+ projection: South Dakota 26.8, UC Davis 18.6