South Carolina entered the ladies’s NCAA event undefeated and because the heavy favourite every of the previous two years. However this season, each workforce among the many prime 16 seeds has a minimum of two losses — which suggests the battle for the nationwide championship feels extra broad open.
That stated, no workforce seeded under No. 3 has ever gained the NCAA girls’s school basketball title. Three have carried out it because the No. 3 seed, most just lately LSU in 2023.
Early-round upsets have turn out to be extra commonplace, even on the house courts of top-16 seeds. It occurred 3 times final 12 months, with No. 5 seeds Colorado and Baylor and No. 7 Duke advancing to the Candy 16.
How do the No. 1 seeds stack up this 12 months? South Carolina is making an attempt to repeat, whereas Texas (2004) and USC (1986) search their first Ultimate 4 in a very long time, and UCLA seeks its first within the NCAA period.
Which workforce would be the final one standing when the nets are minimize down on April 6 on the Amalie Enviornment in Tampa, Florida?
Regardless of being the No. 2 general seed behind the Bruins, South Carolina is the most well-liked decide to win the 2025 title amongst almost two dozen girls’s school basketball analysts, writers and commentators we polled throughout ESPN. 9 of 23 voters picked the Gamecocks to win all of it. UConn, a No. 2 seed searching for its first championship since Breanna Stewart’s senior 12 months in 2016, had the second-most votes at seven, adopted by three votes apiece for USC and UCLA.
ESPN seems on the subject and what we would see within the early rounds and past.
Soar to: Expert picks | Title game matchup
What’s every 1-seed’s potential flaw?
Alexa Philippou: UCLA is in comparatively uncharted territory, as none of its gamers have performed past the Candy 16; coach Cori Shut has superior previous that spherical simply as soon as, in 2018. In its two wins over UCLA, USC was in a position to decelerate the Bruins by making life hell for Lauren Betts (granted, most groups do not have the dimensions and physicality to try this, particularly not in Spokane 1). But when that occurs, it makes it much more essential that different gamers step up round her. Notably, the workforce shot 7-for-33 on 3-pointers in these losses to USC. Examine that to how the Bruins made 10 of 21 3-point makes an attempt of their blowout win over South Carolina in November.
Michael Voepel: Texas’ offense turns into extra of a priority the deeper the Longhorns go within the event. Texas was the highest defensive workforce within the SEC, holding opponents to 55.9 factors, and was sixth in scoring offense (78.9 PPG). However the Longhorns common simply 3.2 3-pointers per sport and shoot 29.6% behind the arc. In the event that they advance to the Candy 16, and if seeds maintain, they’d face Ohio State (6.5 3-pointers per sport, 34.2%). Then TCU (9.6 3’s per sport, 37.6%) may very well be up subsequent within the regional last. So there might be loads of stress on Texas’ protection to make it tougher for groups to hit from the skin.
For South Carolina, rebounding may very well be a priority. The Gamecocks are averaging 42.5 RPG, their lowest since their present Ultimate 4 run started in 2021. Throughout that point, the Gamecocks’ finest rebounding season was in 2022-23, once they have been second in Division I at 49.5 RPG. The Gamecocks have been outrebounded in every of their losses this season: by 7 towards UCLA, by 6 towards Texas and by 16 towards UConn. In tight video games, rebounding could make all of the distinction.
Charlie Creme: USC can generally be too depending on JuJu Watkins. There is no disputing that Kiki Iriafen had an excellent season, and by the point late February got here, the extremely regarded freshman class, led by Kennedy Smith and Avery Howell, was extra dependable. However there have been video games when it was Watkins or bust. Generally it really works, similar to within the Trojans’ first victory over UCLA this season when Watkins scored 38 factors. Losses to Iowa and the Bruins within the Massive Ten championship sport illustrated what can occur when she struggles and there’s no to assist. As soon as the regionals arrive, USC won’t be capable of win a championship if Watkins is not good for these last 4 video games.
South Carolina edged UConn as the favourite amongst our voters. What are the keys to a Gamecocks repeat?
Philippou: It appears like a South Carolina repeat would possible come by the hands of a dominant event from Joyce Edwards, MiLaysia Fulwiley or each gamers. Daybreak Staley has a plethora of choices she will be able to placed on the ground — the Gamecocks lead the nation with 41.5 bench factors per sport — although it usually appears like those most able to altering the complexity of the sport are these reserves. It additionally would not be stunning to see a giant sport or two from Tessa Johnson, who stays the workforce’s finest 3-point shooter at 41.1% and famously confirmed out within the 2024 nationwide title sport.
Voepel: It is key for the Gamecocks to defend at their highest stage — they held opponents to 57.8 PPG — and to get the model of junior ahead Chloe Kitts that gained her SEC event MVP honors. She averaged 16.7 factors and seven.7 rebounds in these three video games.
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Paige Bueckers excited to be wholesome heading into NCAA event
Paige Bueckers shares her expectations for last NCAA event run with UConn earlier than shifting on to the WNBA.
Is that this the 12 months UConn lastly wins its first title since 2016?
Voepel: The Huskies have a ok workforce and greater than sufficient motivation to do it. However the path is hard: They probably must beat three No. 1 seeds to win the championship. That makes it a really tough process, even for as achieved a program as UConn.
Philippou: UConn earned my decide, however as Voepel laid out, it is not a simple rout. The Huskies aren’t flawless — questions stay about their submit depth and impression past Sarah Sturdy — however Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and Sturdy are arguably the perfect trio within the nation. That, mixed with Geno Auriemma’s capability to get his groups to peak in March and the urgency to win for Bueckers in her last 12 months with this system, may very well be a harmful recipe for opposing groups. There was no extra spectacular win this season than when the Huskies beat South Carolina by 29, and whereas they may not shoot that nice every event sport, they nonetheless have extra methods to win than they’ve had the previous few occasions they have been to the Ultimate 4.
Creme: The elements are there: expertise, depth, offensive range and, lastly, well being. And yearly that Bueckers has been on the court docket for the NCAA event, the Huskies have reached the Ultimate 4. With a workforce this gifted offensively — tops within the nation in subject aim share and factors per play — taking the following step is within the playing cards. However my decide for the title is South Carolina, with the Gamecocks narrowly beating UConn within the last. The assembly between these two in February confirmed precisely what these Huskies can accomplish. That model of UConn will win this system’s twelfth title.
Outdoors of the highest eight groups, who’s one other workforce seeded third or decrease that would attain the Ultimate 4?
Voepel: LSU, the No. 3 seed in Spokane 1, is flying below the radar, particularly for a workforce that gained the NCAA title simply two years in the past. The Tigers have been undefeated in nonconference play. Till late February, their solely losses have been to No. 1 seeds South Carolina and Texas. Then an extra time loss at Alabama on Feb. 27 began a skid, they usually enter the NCAA event having misplaced three of their final 4 video games. Guard Flau’Jae Johnson (shin irritation) hasn’t performed since that Alabama loss, however is predicted again within the event.
If wholesome, LSU is a harmful workforce with Johnson, Aneesah Morrow and Mikaylah Williams as large scoring threats. If seeds maintain, LSU may face NC State within the regional semifinals; the Tigers beat the Wolfpack on Nov. 27. After which LSU may face UCLA within the Elite Eight; the Tigers beat the Bruins in final 12 months’s Candy 16.
Philippou: I picked Notre Dame to advance to Tampa in my bracket. If the model of the Irish that we noticed on the finish of February and early March exhibits up, that choice will look silly. But when the model that beat USC, Texas and UConn reemerges, that is a workforce that would win the nationwide championship. We have beforehand addressed the problems Notre Dame handled on each ends of the ground. One factor the Irish cannot solely repair is their lack of dominant submit presence — which may very well be a problem when going up towards the likes of Texas and/or TCU — but when Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron play like the perfect backcourt trio within the nation, it may be sufficient to make up for it.
Creme: Notre Dame was additionally one among my Ultimate 4 picks, however past the Irish and LSU, let’s watch Tennessee. This Girl Vols workforce is exclusive. With first-year coach Kim Caldwell putting in a system that leans on full-court stress, mass substitutions and high-volume 3-point taking pictures, Tennessee has a method that may make preparation tough for an opponent, particularly within the second spherical and regional finals when there’s solely someday in between video games. The Girl Vols are additionally able to taking pictures themselves out of video games, so they’re a high-risk, high-reward proposition. However it will be enjoyable to observe the Girl Vols get scorching and make a run.
Which sport are you most wanting ahead to over the primary 4 days?
Voepel: Admittedly, 8-9 video games are supposed to be shut. However of the 8-9s, Utah-Indiana may very well be excellent in Birmingham 2. Each groups have sharpshooters. Utes junior guard Gianna Kneepkens has made 90 3-pointers this season whereas taking pictures 45% from behind the arc. Hoosiers junior guard Yarden Garzon has made 85 treys whereas taking pictures 41.5%.
Amongst double-digit seeds that may probably pull upsets, let’s keep in Birmingham 2. No. 14 seed Oregon State, a 2024 Elite Eight workforce, misplaced loads by means of transfers after the demise of the Pac-12 and the Beavers’ transfer to the West Coast Convention. However they gained that league event and now face third-seeded North Carolina. No 14 or 15 seed has ever gained an NCAA event sport relationship to 1994, when the ladies’s subject expanded to 64. Might the Beavers turn out to be the primary?
Philippou: The second spherical may function 7-seed Vanderbilt vs. 2-seed Duke and 6-seed Michigan vs. 3-seed Notre Dame. Will Commodores freshman phenom Mikayla Blakes and accomplice in crime Khamil Pierre transcend Duke’s hard-nosed protection to attain an enormous upset for Vanderbilt’s first Candy 16 since 2009? Michigan’s freshmen, headlined by Syla Swords and Olivia Olson, have buoyed this system this 12 months and the Wolverines almost took down the Gamecocks at the start of the season. Might they offer Notre Dame a troublesome time in South Bend?
Creme: No. 11 seed Murray State towards No. 6 Iowa is intriguing. The Racers are the nation’s prime scoring workforce and Iowa can put up factors too. The tempo of this sport may very well be livid. Murray State’s Katelyn Younger has scored over 3,000 factors in her profession. Her particular person matchup with Hannah Stuelke may very well be one other sport inside the sport. If the Racers can pull the upset, Oklahoma possible awaits, and one other shootout may very well be on faucet.
Predicted nationwide championship sport matchup
Andrea Adelson: UConn over South Carolina
Jay Alter: UConn over South Carolina
Kendra Andrews: South Carolina over USC
Krista Blunk: UCLA over Texas
Mike Couzens: UConn over South Carolina
Charlie Creme: South Carolina over UConn
Courtney Cronin: UConn over South Carolina
Wes Durham: South Carolina over UCLA
Kelly Gramlich: Notre Dame over UCLA
Angel Grey: UCLA over South Carolina
Tiffany Greene: South Carolina over UConn
Jenn Hildreth: USC over Texas
Chuckie Kempf: USC over Notre Dame
Joe Malfa: UConn over Notre Dame
Anne O’Neil: South Carolina over LSU
Kevin Pelton: UConn over South Carolina
Alexa Philippou: UConn over South Carolina
Roy Philpott: South Carolina over UConn
Kelsey Riggs Cuff: USC over South Carolina
Angela Taylor: UCLA over South Carolina
Christy Thomaskutty: South Carolina over UConn
Michael Voepel: South Carolina over UCLA
Helen Williams: South Carolina over USC